Apocalypse Aye!

The Scottish opinion polls show the gap between yes and no camps in the independence debate narrowing ever more - the latest from ICM shows 52% against and 48% in favour of ending the Union with nearly five months to go to the September referendum.

The "Better Together" campaign (against independence) has seen its commanding lead slide over the last few weeks and its response has been criticised as increasingly negative; from the three Westminster parties "ganging up" to make clear their joint opposition to the SNP's preferred option of a currency union, to warnings about shipyard closures, membership of the EU and even what you will be able to see on TV in a new Scotland.

But a couple of weeks ago, things took a more sinister turn when former Labour Minister "Lord" George Robertson went to the USA and spoke against Scottish independence in the darkest and most hyperbolic terms imaginable. A Yes vote would, it seems, usher in a new dark age:
"What could possibly justify giving the dictators, the persecutors, the oppressors, the annexers, the aggressors and the adventurers across the planet the biggest pre-Christmas present of their lives by tearing the United Kingdom apart?"

Acknowledgement to The Point

Independence would be cataclysmic, his Lordship decreed, and the loudest cheers would apparently be heard from the forces of darkness.

Now, we know that First Minister Salmond is not liked by Robertson and his colleagues, but to imply that Wee 'Eck is in league with the Wee Man has to be a first. How long perhaps before Better Together, who are still to explain their name, start issuing their leaders with broad-brimmed hats and instruct their minions to drag pro-indy campaigners towards the horrors of the Comfy Chair? After all, isn't it self-evident that, with the Crimea in the bag, Bad Vlad Putin is eying up some real estate around Cumbernauld for his next dacha? And Assad is already packed for the Pitlochry Festival.

The Dark Arts are clearly alive and well. Yet the scent of sulphur seems somehow stronger in the hissing steam around Unionist supremo Alistair Darling and his increasingly shrill followers in their Project Fear than in the winds of change issuing from the increasingly confident independence camp.


Secret Footage from Better Together HQ 

TORIES IN TROUBLE: Don't Forget the Matches!

Scottish Green Party leader shouts out to PM Mc-Cameron

When Nigel Farage allegedly swept the fringe elements out of UKIP (which if true would leave it somewhat bereft of members), it seems they may have decanted, in spirit at least, to their old home in the Tory Party. Perhaps a bit like the offspring returning after three years joshing in the Bullingdon. At any rate, the last few days have seen the torch of trouble pass from the Faragistas to the Tories, demonstrating just how ludicrously removed from normal people they really are.

First, Aidan Burley, stalwart of the Hugo Boss appreciation society, announced he would (goose) step down from being an MP. This came after it emerged that, contrary to his claim that he left the infamous Nazi "stag in the forest" party before his friends started shouting their ever-so-funny mein fuhrer chants, photos existed of him still present during the Hitlerite banter.

Next, today, came Dave SuperMc-Cameron, the Man with Seven Months to Save the Union! He desperately wants the Scots to stay part of the UK. If they leave, he says, it will tear Britain apart. And of course, that just won't do, since that's David's job.

Tearfully (not), he delivered an ode to his ancestral homeland, revealing that "Cameron" is gaelic for "crooked nose", which seems rather appropriate. Keen to reinforce the sense of belonging together, to show his deep empathy for the hills and humans of Caledonia, he made the long and arduous journey to...the Olympic Park in the East End of London to deliver his homily to unity. This led to Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond mocking his continuing refusal to debate with him face to face in Scotland, while Scottish Green Party leader Patrick Harvie tweeted "What's that David? I can't hear you from there. Why not come here and say that?"

Yet Cameron apparently refuses to intervene in the Scottish referendum. His speech was supposedly directed to the people of Wales, England and Northern Ireland. But although Dave won't be seen talking to Wee 'Eck Salmond for reasons of lofty statesmanship (!), The Times newspaper, The Voice of the Establishment, suggested he would like the rest of us to phone up family and friends in Scotland and ask them please to vote No to independence.

Hello Ma, it's me!
Oh, hello, we've not heard from you in a while son...
Aye, well, David Cameron asked me to call you.
Oh, that's nice of him. Why's that?
Well, he says we're better together.
Oh that's lovely son. We'll be on the next train down there...
**@@!!#  Cameron!
(dialing tone sound)

It may be something he borrowed from his Lib Dem vassals. Apparently a while back the centrist Orcs thought it would be a great idea to programme their computers to deliberately dial a quarter of a million random numbers and play people a speech from Nick Clegg. Truly terrifying. At least Dave wants real people to make the calls. And Aidan has got some time on his hands now, as long as he can stop them jerking skywards.

But topping it all was this gem, reported in The Scotsman newspaper. Tory MP for Penrith & The Borders, Rory Stewart, wants a human chain of 100,000 English people to stand on Hadrian's Wall with fiery torches in the belief this will encourage Scots to vote against leaving Britain. Steve Arnott of The Point has suggested that this is more reminiscent of Lord of the Rings than political debate, but either way, it would be hard to imagine a more chilling scene than legions of Barbour wearing, green wellied chaps, probably complete with an arsenal of shooting sticks, lined up along the course of the ancient Roman barrier. And then, just as the dark purple twilight falls gently on the silent hills...THEY LIGHT THE TORCHES!

If anyone in Scotland still doubted the case for independence, they almost certainly wouldn't any longer.

Gosh! Awfully difficult finding this Scotchland place. Must be here somewhere...

The midgie in the ointment for Mr Stewart's big idea is that, although he is the local MP, he seems to have forgotten that Hadrian's Wall is situated some miles from the Scottish Border. So in fact, his Angle horde would be waving their flames at their own countryside. Unless, of course, they want to give Berwick back to Scotland, and a fair chunk of Newcastle.

In any case, as the beautiful area around Hadrian's Wall has just been declared a "dark skies park" where lights are banned so you can see the stars clearly, their torches would need to be extinguished even faster than Cameron's credibility north of the border.

But in the event that in spite of all reason it happens, I do hope if Aidan goes along to join in no one mentions taking a bedsheet with his fiery stick. You know, for a "fancy dress" party...

Hadrian's Wall has been declared Europe's largest Dark Skies Park. No flaming torches please.

The Man Who Stares at Groats - positive currency for Scotland's Future

Salmond and the ancient Scots groat

The Scottish Government has today launched a far reaching white paper, Scotland's Future, outlining its plans for a new, independent country if Scottish voters say Yes next September. In a polished performance, as well as presenting the proposed constitutional settlement and complex division of assets and liabilities between Scotland and the remainder of the United Kingdom, First Minister Alex Salmond and his deputy, Nicola Sturgeon, outlined a range of key policy objectives should the SNP be successfully elected as the government of a newly independent country.

The SNP's plans are mildly left of centre, with economic growth at the heart of their plans for a settlement along a vaguely Scandinavian type model of mixed ownership and social welfare - an objective probably reflecting the broad political consensus within Scotland but something increasingly alien to the gradually harsher, neoliberal approach of the two and a half main parties south of the border.

Controversially, the paper includes retaining a currency union with the rest of the UK and keeping the pound sterling as Scotland's currency. This may be driven by the SNP seeking to reassure voters that independence will not create some new alien world with a return to the ancient Scottish coinage of the groat but it leaves a post-independence Scotland somewhat beholden to the economic policies of its much larger neighbour, precisely the recipe for disaster that has racked the European Union in recent years. What if, as does not seem unlikley, an independent Scottish Government wishes to follow an expansionist policy while London continues to opt for austerity? There is little doubt which piper would call the tune and Scotland's independence in economics at least would be curtailed as a result.

Independent countries are most successful if they have independent currencies - and of Scotland's Scandinavian comparators, only Finland has yielded to the Euro. Sweden, Denmark and Norway, two inside and the other outside the EU, thrive by their own currencies, while the remarkable turnaround in Iceland's economy since the disaster of 2009 would not have been possible without its sovereignty on currency (as well as a Green - Left government). A Scottish currency is a key part of the Scottish Green Party's egalitarian pro-independence platform, lauched by MSPs Patrick Harvie and Alison Johnstone a couple of weeks ago. (Q&A video with Patrick Harvie below.)

There is little doubt Scotland could function very well indeed as an independent state and given the increasing cultural and political divergence between Scotland and, in particular, the dominant "middle England", there is no compelling reason to remain in a union which few south of the border are particularly bothered about. If the unionists' call north of Gretna is Better Together, their southern equivalent, were there one, could as easily be titled Couldn't Care Less.

The narrow and mean-minded approach of the unionist camp - denouncing currency union as fantasy when they had previously endorsed it and running on a ceaseless tirade of abuse towards Alex Salmond in particular - does little to enhance its case. It lacks vision and seems bereft of any emotional connection with the debate, trading often dubiously constructed figures about fiscal changes and bizarre stories about not being able to see Dr Who on the TV, rather than addressing any positive reasons for remaining in union. Its harsh rebuttal of the white paper before it was even published will do little to help its case just as some polls seem to show the gap between the two sides narrowing slightly. If the Coalition Government and Labour unionists remain as stridently intransigent on opposing currency union, it is to be hoped the SNP does the logical thing which it should have done in the first place and moves to a separate Scottish currency as the only choice remaining given the blatant ill will of the UK parties. It would be a massive error to nail their colours to the mast on a union with entities that don't reciprocate.

In the meantime, there are over 600 pages to read, available here, and ten months of campaigning to go. For Scottish expats like myself, south of the border for some years, it will be an interesting time guaging the impact of the debate on the rest of the country - the commonly held, but rather incorrect, view being that Scotland is subsidised by the English taxpayer (Scotland actually contributes more tax per head than the rest of the UK and receives significantly less than Londoners and many parts of the north of England).

With the rightwing media portraying Scotland as a burden to the rest of the UK, this line of argument no matter how incorrect may nevertheless become more of an issue south of the border in the run up to September. In the event of a No vote, then, as the Coalition's Secretary of State for Scotland has indicated, there may well be some move to change the public funding for Scotland in the long established Barnett formula, which sets funding for Scottish services. Consequently, having voted against independence after being told it would be economically damaging, Scots may then face being economically damaged by Westminster in any case.

So, the choice may become starker still - who do people in Scotland have confidence in most : an increasingly remote, centralist Government in Westminster; or themselves?